Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.382595 25.682697 28.267309 31.421316 35.215401 39.699254 45.505238
2025-02-02 20.129160 23.114511 26.746688 31.615044 38.182508 47.098128 60.878535
2025-02-09 18.011651 21.364752 25.695730 31.954703 41.281654 55.745407 82.917942
2025-02-16 16.406104 19.939088 24.716735 32.054345 43.970743 64.937476 113.773665
2025-02-23 15.034100 18.599599 23.589090 31.622696 45.624319 73.206071 153.688227
2025-03-02 14.065983 17.677491 22.888896 31.655612 48.024219 84.364366 225.595224
2025-03-09 13.203513 16.799741 22.117476 31.390243 49.757524 95.336820 342.607651
2025-03-16 12.460507 16.017361 21.385606 31.039484 51.197447 106.890309 568.034671
2025-03-23 11.829985 15.342967 20.741266 30.721767 52.611109 119.977916 1155.619944
2025-03-30 11.305312 14.783650 20.219046 30.535959 54.282837 136.255805 4657.285309
2025-04-06 10.750985 14.137632 19.490799 29.839263 54.497303 147.481304 NaN
2025-04-13 10.603815 14.110795 19.792155 31.223962 60.697681 199.885179 NaN
2025-04-20 10.190055 13.639538 19.296243 30.911710 62.133026 230.949105 NaN
2025-04-27 9.874031 13.305581 19.012857 31.015412 64.954094 285.688881 NaN
2025-05-04 9.610438 13.039598 18.826394 31.304669 68.588682 374.914624 NaN
2025-05-11 9.340331 12.746158 18.564414 31.382616 71.607171 494.849696 NaN
2025-05-18 9.028579 12.366572 18.114495 30.957758 72.622148 606.492561 NaN
2025-05-25 8.795177 12.105907 17.867175 30.985719 75.533558 867.645516 NaN
2025-06-01 8.545326 11.804936 17.522114 30.727971 77.200328 1219.504146 NaN
2025-06-08 8.303398 11.506376 17.162189 30.388737 78.424631 1783.204055 NaN
2025-06-15 8.080728 11.231123 16.830190 30.081745 79.735437 2970.642151 NaN
2025-06-22 7.885491 10.994786 16.559468 29.902225 81.666700 7441.309877 NaN
2025-06-29 7.650661 10.681039 16.119733 29.229409 80.824511 13939.438308 NaN